A decision to drill an exploration well with the objective to find a new oil or gas field must be based on a sound assessment of the prospect's risks and of the volumes: what is the chance that a well will find hydrocarbons, and how much could it be? Risk and volume assessments form the basis for decisions to drill a well or not, and as such form the link between subsurface evaluation and the business aspects of the petroleum industry. 

This course explains how risks and volumes can be assessed in a realistic manner, based on a sound understanding of the geological details of the prospect as well as of its regional geological setting and current play understanding.

How will this Training Course be presented?

The course will not only be presented by showing and interpreting the material in detail, but also the participants will work together using a real data to apply all the workflow and to project their previous knowledge and experience onto the course, they also encouraged to bring their own data so that real working examples can be reviewed and interpreted.

Detailed Agenda

o   Learning Objective.

Ø  Module 1: Introduction

o   Course Overview

o   Hydrocarbon in place Principles.

o   Data Integration.

o   Exploration and Development Uncertainty

o   Geophysical Uncertainty.

o   Geological Uncertainty.

o   Structural Uncertainty.

o   Petrophysical Uncertainty.

o   Fracture Uncertainty

o   Contact Uncertainty

o   Full Picture.

Ø Module 2: Play Based Exploration Pyramid

o   Play Analysis detailed Work Flow.

o   Exploration Strategy.

o   Horizon Modeling.

o   Principle Definitions.

o   Level of Knowledge.

o   Play Analysis Level.

Ø  Module 3: Basin Analysis

o   Basin Definition, Earth Structure, Geological Time

o   Oceanic and Continental Crust

o   Plate Tectonics

o   Types of Basins

o   World Basins.

o   Assess Petroleum System.

o   Source Rocks, Trap Distribution, Structure Restoration.

Ø  Module 4: Play Focus Workflow.

o   Play Definition.

o   What we Know and Where we know it.

o   CRS Risking.

o   Quantitative Assessment.

Ø  Module 5: Prospect Focus.

o   From play to prospect.

o   Play Dependences.

o   Play Quality Control.

o   E&P Cash Flow.

o   Exploration Questions.

o   Exercises.

Ø Module 6: Geo-statistical Analysis.

o   Histograms.

o   Property distribution Function.

o   Cumulative Distribution function.

o   Distribution Algorithms.

o   Min, Max.

o   P10, P50 and P90.

o   Risk and Uncertainty.

o   Risk Template

o   Normal and Lognormal Distribution

o   Volume Prediction

o   Exercises.

Ø  Module 7: Chance Factor and POS.

o   Chance factor and Risking Template.

o   Exercises.

o   Five Chance Factors & Technical Success.

o   Chance factors

Ø Module 8: Prospect Evaluation work steps.

o   Reservoir Chance Factor.

o   Source Chance Factor.

o   Seal Chance Factor.

o   Charge Chance Factor.

o   What is Discovery

o   Exercises.

Note: The course will not only be presented by showing and interpreting the material in detail, but also the participants will work together using a real data to apply all the workflow and to project their previous knowledge and experience onto the course, they also encouraged to bring their own data so that real working examples can be reviewed and interpreted.